It’s an
alarming situation for the incumbent government Samajwadi Party, a year before
Uttar Pradesh is set to hold state elections. A latest opinion poll that
gauges the current mood of UP has revealed that BSP supremo Mayawati will make
a comeback in the state by roping in allies if elections were to be held today.
The survey
has predicted that BSP is likely to win185 seats in the 403-member assembly.
BSP was reduced to 80 seats in the defeat of 2012 polls but the scenario now
would let Mayawati return to the helm of affairs in the state.
SP, on the
other hand, is keen on repeating its performance of 2012, but the party is
witnessing a wane in its popularity. The survey has found that Samajwadi Party
may win only 80 seats (228 in 2012) this time around. In last year’s Lok Sabha
polls, it won only five of the 80 seats in the state. The BJP swept the state
by winning 73 seats along with allies.
The 2017
election that holds the key to Narendra Modi’s second term in
2019 has suggested that the BJP+ is likely to bag 120 seats but that wouldn’t
be enough to form the government. Uttar Pradesh is also crucial because after
being routed in Bihar last year, the BJP cannot afford to lose the heartland
state.
Despite
attaining successes in Gujarat in 2014 and then Bihar in 2015, master poll
strategist and public health professional, Prashant Kishor, does not seem to be
doing wonders for Congress.
Important points of the Opinion Poll
Maya ‘Best Suited CM’
BSP Chief
Mayawati (31%) has emerged as best suited to become the next CM of UP closely
followed by Akhilesh Yadav (30%) of SP. Rajnath Singh (18%) of the BJP was a
distant third.
Performance
of the SP Government since last four years has been rated just below average
with a mean score of 2.9. 32% respondents gave a rating of Very Good or Good
compared to 36% who rated the government performance as Poor or Very Poor.
However, Muslim voters feel it is well above average. Similar response received
when asked about the performance of the UP Chief Minister, Akhilesh Yadav.
Law & order has become worse
A high
proportion of respondents, 60% said that the law and order situation has become
worse in last four years of SP Government. Except the Muslim population, 54% of
whom feel it has improved, the response is same across the demographics. Two
thirds of the respondents said that they have not seen or heard about any
development work undertaken by the Government in the last four years. Even half
of the Muslim voters agree to this view. Nearly two-third respondents were
dissatisfied as govt unable to prevent crimes against women.
More than
half of the respondents were dissatisfied with the current government in
maintaining the religious harmony among people. However, half of the Muslim
voters feel otherwise and the opinion is divided among other minority
religions. Controlling the law and order situation is a big concern; nearly
two-thirds of the respondents recorded their dissatisfaction with the current
UP Government on this count.
BSP less corrupt
The current
SP Government led by Akhilesh Yadav has been seen as more corrupt compared to
the previous Mayawati led BSP government in UP. This perception is higher among
the Hindus and BPL respondents.
62% of the
respondents said that they were satisfied when asked about the performance of
the current BJP led Central Government. But more than half of the Muslim voters
felt dissatisfied with the Central Government.
Modi still popular
Narendra
Modi emerges as the most popular leader in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawaiti comes in at
second position closely followed by the current Chief Minister, Akhilesh Yadav.
For More
Information Visit : http://www.vishwagujarat.com/
Latest Opinion Poll For UP Assembly Elections
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